The Impact of VAR on Football Betting: What You Need to Know

The introduction of Video Assistant Referee (VAR) has had a profound impact on football, altering the way matches are officiated and influencing betting markets in significant ways. Since its implementation in major leagues and tournaments, VAR has led to more penalties, disallowed goals, and extended stoppage times, all of which affect betting strategies. For punters, understanding how VAR changes the dynamics of football betting is crucial to making smarter wagers. This article explores how VAR has impacted different bet types and how you can adjust your betting approach accordingly.

How VAR Has Changed Football Betting

1. More Penalties Awarded

One of the most noticeable effects of VAR is the increase in penalties. Before its introduction, referees had to make split-second decisions, often missing minor fouls in the box. Now, with video review, even slight contact or handball offences can result in a spot-kick. 🔹 Impact on Betting:

• Betting on penalties to be awardedin a match has become more popular.
• Some teams now see an increase in their penalty count, especially those that attack frequently and operate in the opponent’s box (e.g., Manchester City, PSG, and Real Madrid).
• Penalty taker markets (e.g., First Goalscoreror Anytime Goalscorer) have gained importance as penalties contribute more to goal tallies.

✔ Betting Strategy: Consider backing teams that frequently win penalties and look at referees who are known to consult VAR often.

2. More Goals Disallowed

VAR has made goal decisions more stringent, with offside and handball calls being reviewed in detail. Even marginal offsides—where a player’s toe is slightly ahead—can lead to goals being ruled out. 🔹 Impact on Betting:

• Both Teams to Score (BTTS)bets can be riskier as goals are more likely to be chalked off.
• Over 2.5 Goalsmarkets may be affected if legitimate-looking goals are ruled out.
• First Goalscorerbets can be frustrating, as early celebrations may be overturned.

✔ Betting Strategy:

• Consider live betting, where you can place bets after VAR reviews confirm a goal.
• Teams that frequently play offside traps (e.g., Liverpool and Bayern Munich) may see more opponent goals disallowed, affecting match outcomes.

3. Longer Stoppage Time

With VAR interventions taking time, added minutes in each half have increased significantly. Some matches now see 8–10 minutes of stoppage time instead of the usual 3–5 minutes. 🔹 Impact on Betting:

• Late goalshave become more common, making the “Goal after 75 minutes” or “Last Goal” markets more attractive.
• Live bettingstrategies must account for extended playing time, meaning there are more opportunities for late drama.

✔ Betting Strategy:

• Consider betting on late goalsin games where teams push hard until the final whistle.
• Look at teams with a history of scoring or conceding in stoppage time.

4. Psychological Impact on Players

VAR decisions can frustrate or motivate players, altering team momentum. A controversial disallowed goal or red card can significantly shift the dynamics of a game. 🔹 Impact on Betting:

• Teams affected by VAR frustrationsmay lose composure, leading to more bookings or poor defensive structure.
• Players who have had goals disallowed might push harder to score, affecting Anytime Goalscorerand Shot on Target

✔ Betting Strategy:

• Keep an eye on live in-play marketswhen a controversial VAR decision occurs.
• Consider betting on red cardsin heated matches where VAR is likely to intervene.

5. More Red Cards and Bookings

VAR has made it easier for referees to issue red cards for dangerous tackles and off-the-ball incidents. Retrospective reviews have also resulted in penalties and dismissals that might have been missed before. 🔹 Impact on Betting:

• Betting on “Red Card in the Match”or “Over 3.5 Cards” has gained popularity.
• Teams reduced to 10 mensee a significant drop in possession and attacking potential, which can affect live betting odds.

✔ Betting Strategy:

• Analyse referees who frequently review VAR for potential red cards.
• Consider backing opposing teamswhen their rivals receive a red card, as they will likely dominate play.

Key Betting Adjustments for VAR

Now that you understand the impact of VAR, here are some strategic adjustments to make: ✅ Focus on live betting – Waiting for VAR decisions before placing bets can save you from losses due to overturned goals or penalties. ✅ Analyse referee trends – Some referees rely more on VAR than others, leading to increased penalties and red cards. Research referee stats before betting. ✅ Consider penalty and card markets – More penalties and red cards mean there are more profitable opportunities outside traditional win-draw-win bets. ✅ Be cautious with goals markets – Over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets can be unpredictable with the number of disallowed goals increasing. ✅ Factor in extended stoppage time – Betting on late goals has become more valuable due to the additional minutes added at the end of each half.

Final Thoughts

VAR has revolutionised football and, as a result, has reshaped betting strategies. While it introduces an element of unpredictability, it also creates new opportunities for smart punters who know how to adapt. By understanding how VAR influences penalties, disallowed goals, red cards, and added time, you can make better-informed bets and stay ahead of the game. Rather than seeing VAR as an obstacle, think of it as an opportunity to refine your approach and gain an edge in football betting.

Key Takeaways:

✔ VAR has led to more penalties, more red cards, and longer stoppage times. ✔ Live betting is now more valuable, as you can react to VAR outcomes. ✔ Penalty taker and red card markets offer profitable betting opportunities. ✔ Some referees use VAR more frequently than others—research them before betting. Adapting to VAR means thinking ahead and betting smarter. By incorporating these insights into your strategy, you can make the most of VAR’s impact on football betting.